This weekend we’ve got the biggest competition we’ve ever seen for DraftKings MMA. We’ve got a $10 entry contest with $300,000 in total prizes, and $100,000 of that to 1st place. I never believed we’d observe a 6-figure 1st place trophy for MMA but that I was incorrect and that I can’t wait to pursue it. Conor McGregor vs Khabib Nurmagomedov will be the biggest fight in UFC history and DraftKings simply made it bigger for us DFS players. We’re down to 12-fights therefore that we can see a number of ties for this 1st place prize, so strive to be different with your lineups someplace, or leave wages on the dining table to be different in that way. With that said, here are a Couple of plays I enjoy this weekend along with my fade of the week:
Money Game play of this week — Vicente Luque ($9,400)
Luque is the »safest » play on the card with a good margin at his -900 betting line. I love plugging in those high odds guys in money so that I can lock a triumph in there and fret about finding 3 other wins from my 5 other spots. We usually only want 4 wins in cash games to win against the money line, so that is what I take for in these 50/50 or twice up games. Luque has been quite remarkable in his UFC conduct and he has overcome some fairly big names. On paper, this is only one of the easiest matches nonetheless. In addition, he has big time upside down with his completing potential. He has an ITD line of -270, therefore I think we could have 100+ points in this triumph. He’s a fantastic play in most formats, but he will be chalky in tournaments, so that is why he’s my cash play of this week instead.
GPP drama of this week — Alexander Volkov ($8,700)
Heavyweights are almost always excellent to aim in GPPs since it only takes 1 shot with a lot of those guys. I think this is a great matchup for Volkov and he is only priced at $8.7k weekly. If he can find a 1st round KO at that price, he will probably be on the winning LU. Same goes for Lewis, so he’s a good GPP drama too. However, my pick to win will be Volkov and I enjoy his cost. I believe a few guys priced above him this week will be much more possessed, therefore we could find a heavyweight favorite at lesser possession here. Fight Does Not Go To Conclusion is currently lined at -190, so this is a fantastic GPP struggle to target over all. If you like the Dark Beast to find the W, then he’s a fantastic fighter to throw on your GPP LUs.
Underdog play of the week — Tony Martin ($7,400)
Here really is the best odds value on the card. Presently, Laflare is lined at -135 and Tony Martin is lined at +115. But on DraftKings Laflare is priced $1,400 greater than Martin. I enjoy looking for line value like that which alone puts Martin in drama in all formats. Martin also has the much better odds to finish this fight ITD, so that’s another plus with him. I like the flooring for Martin in money games also because Laflare isn’t very likely to finish if he wins. So, at $7.4k, we can afford a reduction from Martin and take the things he can rack up in 15-minutes.
Fade of this week — Sergio Pettis ($8,600)
Sergio Pettis could definitely get the win . But he’s going to need to acquire a finish to pay off his $8.6k price . Sergio won’t be going for almost any takedowns in this battle, and he does not strike at a high enough speed for him to find 10x of that $8.6k. Sergio are the better fighter on the feet, but if he does not get a finish then he probably only scores 60-70 points in a win. Those low scores do not cut it at $8.6k. There are only better plays points per dollar and those are the guys I will be targeting. Sergio is a strong fade if you are earning 20 or less lineups this weekend.
Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every struggle about the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, in Addition to all of my pick predictions, you can find that for just $7.99 at this link below:
Read more: valsdaily.com