This weekend, we’ve got an 11-fight card in Greenville, South Carolina. DraftKings has some decent competitions for us to acquire a great deal of money from this week. The most important GPP is a $15 buy and $25k belongs to 1st place with a total of $120k being paid out. In addition they possess a Qualifier only competition for $175,000. There will be 100 qualifiers for that competition and they’ll compete for a $50k first place cost and that $175k will be distributed between all 100 admissions that qualify. I will try to get my 3rd chair this week to maximum it if I can. Those Qualifier only contests can be actual bankroll suckers, so be cautious chasing those overly hard. I’ll probably stick to the top GPP this week and then throw a handful of entries at that $30k prize, and then I will probably take a few shots at the Q. I will also be publishing H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs throughout the week to get a good amount of drama into cash games.
With that said, let’s get to a couple plays I like this week along with my fade of the week:
Cash Game play of this week — Main Event STACK — Renato Moicano and Chan Sung Jung
For me, this is an easy stack in money week. I think we easily have a floor of 100 with Renato Moicano and The Korean Zombie with upside of ~150. Additionally, it assures us the winner. As I have mentioned several times previously, we do not want 6 wins in money games, so play with those type of games all you have to do is beat half the field. Normally 4 wins or 400+ points is great enough to money in most cash games. Even if you have a solid lean with this fight I still recommend stacking.
GPP drama of the week — Jairzinho Rozenstruik — $9,000
Rozenstruik gets the highest ITD line on the card in -140 and he could hit 100+ DK points by getting that in around 1. The worry here will be him being on his back in around 1 and then scoring zero points through that and then going out and obtaining a KO in round 2. Or no KO in any way. Both of those would take him off the perfect lineup so we need this struggle to keep standing and ideally an early KO. I believe that’s extremely possible and he’ll be a core GPP play of mine . He is not the best money game play however because he could be placed on his back and be stuck there and possibly even lose the battle that way. I’m OK with him in cash, but I won’t be making that a priority like I will being obese in GPPs.
Underdog play of this week — Anderson Dos Santos — $7,900
This betting line is about pickem’ having a slight lean towards Dos Santos. However, Ewell is the preferred on DraftKings and is $400 more than ADS. Ewell is also the striker so for him to score highly he’s likely going to need a complete finish. His weakness is Anderson Dos Santos’ strength however. Ewell has difficulty staying off his spine and when ADS can place him there he could possibly submit him. Or he could rack up multiple takedowns to get a high decision rating. I enjoy the value we’re getting on him $7.9k and I like he should be looking to grapple in this particular fight. That is the reason why I needed to select him as my dog of this week.
Fade of the week — Syuri Kondo $8,000
There are no real easy fades this week. I do have a full fade on Kondo though because she looks to be purely a striker and I think Ashely Yoder’s greatest path to victory is by way of grappling. If Kondo isn’t in a striking match for 15-minutes I don’t see the way she scores tremendously unless she receives a finish. I don’t believe she’s KO power, so I believe it is purely the significant strikes and the triumph bonus that we would be relying here. I’d rather take a fighter with more of a chance to complete or who’s more likely to grapple. That’s why Kondo is my fade of this week.
Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If You’d like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every struggle on the card and give my full DraftKings evaluation, in Addition to all my pick predictions, then you’ll find that for just $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium bets are offered at that link as well. I am 81-51 to get +251.89u (+$25,189) since May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)
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